Will Anyone Ever Reach Stephen Curry’s Three Point Greatness?

sports
data
NBA
Author

Koy Jorgenson

Published

May 3, 2024

Code 
library(tidyverse)
library(ggrepel)
library(gt)
library(wehoop)

CurryUpdated <- read_csv("CurryThreePointers2.csv")
ModernThrees <- read_csv("threepointmoderndataupdated.csv")

Stephen Curry has been the best shooter in our game for a long time. It isn’t very often where a player comes into the league and leaves a stamp in a new area of the game like Stephen Curry did. In 15 years, Stephen Curry has accomplished great things consisting of NBA championships along with one of his biggest individual accomplishments which was breaking the all-time 3-point record. So, the question is, how much longer is he going to play, and is he going to make his record much harder to reach?

Let’s look at his career so far with what he has achieved on his three-point totals.

Code 
Careertotals <- CurryUpdated |>
  select(Season, `3P`, `3P%`) |>
  filter(`3P` < 500) |>
  arrange(desc(Season))

Careertotals |> 
  gt() |>
  cols_label(
    `3P` = "Total Threes",
    `3P%` = "Three Point Percentage"
  ) |>
  tab_header(
    title = "Is Stephen Curry The Greatest Shooter Ever",
    subtitle = "Stephen Curry continues to increase his all time shooting record with great 2024 season."
  ) |> tab_style(
    style = cell_text(color = "black", weight = "bold", align = "left"),
    locations = cells_title("title")
  ) |> tab_style(
    style = cell_text(color = "black", align = "left"),
    locations = cells_title("subtitle")
  ) |>
  tab_source_note(
    source_note = md("**By:** Koy Jorgenson  |  **Source:** Basketball Reference: Stephen Curry stats, height, weight, position, draft status and more. Basketball. (n.d.). https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html")
  ) |>
  tab_style(
     locations = cells_column_labels(columns = everything()),
     style = list(
       cell_borders(sides = "bottom", weight = px(3)),
       cell_text(weight = "bold", size=12)
     )
   ) |>
  opt_row_striping() |> 
  opt_table_lines("none") |>
    fmt_percent(
    columns = c(`3P%`),
    decimals = 1
  )
Is Stephen Curry The Greatest Shooter Ever
Stephen Curry continues to increase his all time shooting record with great 2024 season.
Season Total Threes Three Point Percentage
2024 357 40.8%
2023 273 42.7%
2022 285 38.0%
2021 337 42.1%
2020 12 24.5%
2019 354 43.7%
2018 212 42.3%
2017 324 41.1%
2016 402 45.4%
2015 286 44.3%
2014 261 42.4%
2013 272 45.3%
2012 55 45.5%
2011 151 44.2%
2010 166 43.7%
By: Koy Jorgenson | Source: Basketball Reference: Stephen Curry stats, height, weight, position, draft status and more. Basketball. (n.d.). https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html

Finishing 2024 with a great resume of 357 threes, which already adds on to the large amount that he currently has. One begs the question assuming he plays four more years, how many more threes he can make?

Let’s look at some projected data.

Code 
CareerAverage <- CurryUpdated |>
  select(Season, `3P`) |>
  mutate(
    AverageThreePointers = `3P`/ n()
  ) |>
  select(Season, `3P`, AverageThreePointers) |>
  arrange(desc(`3P`))

ProjectedThrees <- CareerAverage |>
  mutate(
    ProjectedCareerThrees = AverageThreePointers * 4,
    TotalProjectedThrees = ProjectedCareerThrees + 3747
  )|>
  select(Season,`3P`, ProjectedCareerThrees, TotalProjectedThrees) |>
  filter(`3P` == "3747")

ProjectedThrees |> 
  gt() |>
  cols_label(
    `3P` = "Career Three Pointers",
    ProjectedCareerThrees = "Projected Threes",
    TotalProjectedThrees = "Total Projected Threes"
  ) |>
  tab_header(
    title = "Is Anyone Ever Going To Touch This Record?",
    subtitle = "Stephen Curry still has some more basketball in how many more threes can he put up?"
  ) |> tab_style(
    style = cell_text(color = "black", weight = "bold", align = "left"),
    locations = cells_title("title")
  ) |> tab_style(
    style = cell_text(color = "black", align = "left"),
    locations = cells_title("subtitle")
  ) |>
  tab_source_note(
    source_note = md("**By:** Koy Jorgenson  |  **Source:** Basketball Reference: Stephen Curry stats, height, weight, position, draft status and more. Basketball. (n.d.). https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html")
  ) |>
  tab_style(
     locations = cells_column_labels(columns = everything()),
     style = list(
       cell_borders(sides = "bottom", weight = px(3)),
       cell_text(weight = "bold", size=12)
     ))
Is Anyone Ever Going To Touch This Record?
Stephen Curry still has some more basketball in how many more threes can he put up?
Season Career Three Pointers Projected Threes Total Projected Threes
Career 3747 936.75 4683.75
By: Koy Jorgenson | Source: Basketball Reference: Stephen Curry stats, height, weight, position, draft status and more. Basketball. (n.d.). https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html

It’s crazy to think about if he keeps playing until he’s 40 that he might hit around 4,700 three pointers. With that we need to find out if there is anyone in the modern NBA era right now that could break the record in about 10 years. Below you’ll find that there are a few candidates that are likely to break the record. One being the great sharpshooter Buddy Hield from the Philadelphia 76ers and Damian Lillard from the Milwaukee Bucks. It will be interesting in the future to see if they can reach new heights.

Code 
Top10Threes <- ModernThrees |>
  filter(`3P` > 1900) 
 
Top10Threes |> 
  gt() |>
  cols_label(
    `3P` = "Career Three Pointers",
  ) |>
  tab_header(
    title = "In The Modern NBA Who has A Chance To Break The Record",
    subtitle = "In the modern NBA there are a few players that could move up and break the record."
  ) |> tab_style(
    style = cell_text(color = "black", weight = "bold", align = "left"),
    locations = cells_title("title")
  ) |> tab_style(
    style = cell_text(color = "black", align = "left"),
    locations = cells_title("subtitle")
  ) |>
  tab_source_note(
    source_note = md("**By:** Koy Jorgenson  |  **Source:** Basketball Reference: NBA & ABA Active Leaders and records for 3-PT field goals. Basketball. (n.d.-a). https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fg3_active.html#stats_active_fg3")
  ) |>
  tab_style(
     locations = cells_column_labels(columns = everything()),
     style = list(
       cell_borders(sides = "bottom", weight = px(3)),
       cell_text(weight = "bold", size=12)
     )) |>
  tab_style(
    style = list(
      cell_fill(color = "blue"),
      cell_text(color = "white")
      ),
    locations = cells_body(
      rows = Player == "Buddy Hield")
  ) |>
    tab_style(
    style = list(
      cell_fill(color = "#00471B"),
      cell_text(color = "white")
      ),
    locations = cells_body(
      rows = Player == "Damian Lillard")
  )
In The Modern NBA Who has A Chance To Break The Record
In the modern NBA there are a few players that could move up and break the record.
Rank Player Career Three Pointers Age
1 Stephen Curry 3747 36
2 James Harden 2940 35
3 Damian Lillard 2607 33
4 Klay Thompson 2481 34
5 LeBron James 2410 39
6 Paul George 2253 34
7 Kyle Lowry 2176 38
8 Kevin Durant 2031 35
9 Eric Gordon 2028 35
10 Buddy Hield 1924 31
By: Koy Jorgenson | Source: Basketball Reference: NBA & ABA Active Leaders and records for 3-PT field goals. Basketball. (n.d.-a). https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fg3_active.html#stats_active_fg3

Now let’s take a quick look to see how far ahead Stephen Curry is of the current league, a player still playing on three-point totals. This way we can see if there is anyone remotely close to him right now.

Code 
ggplot() + 
  geom_point(data=Top10Threes, aes(x=`3P`, y=Player)) +
  labs(
    x="Total Three Pointers", 
    y="Player", 
    title="Are Stephen Curry's Three Point Numbers Untouchable?", 
    subtitle="Here listed is the top ten three point shooters in the modern NBA and where they stand.", 
    caption="Source: Basketball Reference | Koy Jorgenson"
    ) +
theme(
    plot.title = element_text(size = 16, face = "bold"),
    axis.title = element_text(size = 10),
    axis.title.y = element_blank()
) +
   theme_minimal()

It’ll be interesting where the future of the NBA takes us with three-point shooting considering Stephen Curry started the love for shooting the three ball and changed the game. Although we don’t know how long he is going to play we do know that although his record is almost unreachable there are a few candidates in the league that could potentially break his record.